Swiss Political Forecast Ledger

Forecast rationale: Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.1% in May 2026, and printing 3.2% in July would take roughly 2,500-3,500 more seasonally adjusted unemployed over June and July combined — more than the recent pace, which was flattered by a single large jump in May after an almost flat April. SECO's own economists say the rise in unemployment is slowing, forward indicators improved in late June (the KOF barometer moved back above 100 and oil fell back below $80), and last summer both the July and August readings were unchanged. A move to 3.2% looks more likely in the autumn than in the July data.
What would change it: SECO's June figures, released 6 July 2026 — a June print of 3.2%, or another May-sized jump in the adjusted count, would push this probability sharply up.
Revised 2026-08-01: 38.0% — SECO's June release (published 6 Jul 2026): the seasonally adjusted count rose another +2,416 to 147'087 — barely below May's +2,583 — while the rounded rate held at 3.1%. A third increment of that size lands almost exactly on the 3.15% rounding threshold for a printed 3.2%, so the deceleration scenario in the registered rationale has weakened; reweighting the same scenario math gives roughly 0.38. Supporting signals: SECO's expert group raised its 2026 average unemployment forecast to 3.1% (18 Jun), and the extended 24-month Kurzarbeit maximum takes effect 1 Aug, both citing the difficult environment.
Base rate / baseline: Baseline: May 2026 = 3.1% sa; June figure publishes 2026-07-06. source
Resolution rule: The seasonally adjusted rate in SECO's release of 2026-08-06.
Resolved 2026-08-11: NO — evidence · SECO's July 2026 release (published 6 Aug 2026) prints the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unchanged at 3.1% — below the 3.2% threshold; the seasonally adjusted count rose 959 to 148'002. Base rate 16.7% = frequency of a >=0.1pp rise in the printed sa rate across the 120 monthly transitions to June 2026 (SECO series via data.snb.ch, current vintage, one-decimal rounding). Scored on the standing forecast of 38% (revised 1 Aug from registered 30%).

Forecast rationale: The September figure is computed from mortgage data already collected on 30 June 2026, and the rate only drops to 1.00% if the average interest rate on Switzerland's outstanding mortgages fell below 1.13% on that date. It stood at 1.31% at the end of March and has been declining by just 0.01 percentage points per quarter; the required one-quarter fall would be nearly double the largest ever recorded, and the average has never been below 1.13% since the series began in 2008. With new fixed mortgages now pricing above the stock average, there is no realistic path to the cut.
What would change it: A Q2 Comparis Hypobarometer release (expected around July on its quarterly cadence) showing an extreme, unprecedented collapse in Swiss mortgage-stock repricing would be the only pre-publication signal worth acting on before the BWO print on 1 September 2026.
Base rate / baseline: Held at 1.25% on 2026-06-02. source
Resolution rule: BWO publication of 2026-09-01.
Resolved 2026-09-02: NO — evidence · BWO publication of 1 September 2026: the reference rate stays at 1.25 percent — no cut to 1.00. Base rate 10.0% (added 13 Oct 2026, as announced here at resolution) = share of the 40 quarterly BWO publications from Sep 2016 to Jun 2026 at which the rate was lowered (4 cuts: Jun 2017, Mar 2020, Mar 2025, Sep 2025).

Forecast rationale: Switzerland's economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter, and the government's own economists said in June that the data available so far point to renewed growth in the second quarter. Business surveys were strong throughout the quarter and May exports jumped 13.4%, helped by pharma companies shipping ahead of a US tariff deadline, so a reading of 0.2% or better looks likely. The main risk is the pharmaceutical sector, whose contribution to GDP swings sharply from quarter to quarter and does not always follow its export numbers.
What would change it: SECO's experimental Flash GDP estimate for Q2, due Friday 14 August 2026 at 09:00, is the single most direct preview of the 3 September figure (June foreign-trade data in mid/late July is the next-best early signal).
Base rate / baseline: Baseline: Q1 2026 = +0.4% QoQ. source
Resolution rule: Headline QoQ figure in the SECO Medienmitteilung of 2026-09-03.
Resolved 2026-10-13: YES — evidence · SECO's first estimate, published 3 Sep 2026, puts sport-event-adjusted real GDP growth for Q2 2026 at +1.5% quarter on quarter (Q1 revised to +0.5%), well above the 0.2% threshold. Base rate 80.0% = share of the 40 quarters Q2 2016 to Q1 2026 with printed growth of 0.2% or more (SECO quarterly series, sport-event-adjusted, vintage of 3 Sep 2026).

Forecast rationale: Cutting from today's 0% would mean returning to negative interest rates, a step the Swiss National Bank has taken only once in its history (2014) and has held off from for four straight meetings while calling its current policy "appropriate." Swiss inflation is low but positive and edging up (0.5% in June), the franc has been weakening, and in a mid-June Reuters survey all 35 economists polled expected the rate to stay at 0% through the end of 2026. Against a franc surge the SNB's stated first response is buying foreign currency, not cutting rates, so only an unusually severe shock this summer would change the picture by 24 September.
What would change it: The Swiss August inflation figures released in early September are the last major input before the meeting — a drop back toward zero, especially alongside a sharp franc appreciation, would revive the case for negative rates.
Base rate / baseline: Policy rate 0% since June 2025; held at the June 2026 assessment. source
Resolution rule: SNB press release of 2026-09-24, 09:30.
Resolved 2026-10-13: NO — evidence · The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0% at its assessment of 24 Sep 2026. Base rate 15.0% = share of the 40 quarterly assessments from Sep 2016 to Jun 2026 at which the SNB lowered its policy rate (6 cuts, Mar 2024 to Jun 2025; SNB data portal).

Forecast rationale: The only vote-intention poll so far (Tamedia/LeeWas, June 2026, more than 26,000 respondents) shows just 34% in favor and 54% against, and Swiss popular initiatives typically lose support over the campaign rather than gain it. Among the parties, only the SVP backs the initiative, while the Federal Council and Parliament recommend rejection — the same lineup under which the comparable 2018 self-determination initiative finished at 33.7% with zero cantons. Passing would also require a majority of cantons on top of a majority of voters, and nothing in the current data points that way.
What would change it: The first SRG/gfs.bern trend poll, expected in mid-to-late August 2026: a yes-share meaningfully above the June 34% would signal an unusually competitive race and move this number up.
Base rate / baseline: Popular initiatives pass 10.7% of the time all-time (26/242); 12.2% since 2000. source
Resolution rule: Provisional official final results published by the Bundeskanzlei on vote night.
Resolved 2026-10-13: NO — evidence · Rejected on 27 Sep 2026 with 29.8% yes and no canton in favor (provisional official result; Federal Chancellery, BFS open data). Base rate 10.7% = share of federal popular initiatives accepted, all-time (26 of 242, Swissvotes), as published at registration.

Forecast rationale: The only poll so far (Tamedia/LeeWas, fieldwork 11-14 June, n=26,205) has yes at 34% with 12% undecided — already below the 35% line — and Swiss initiative campaigns typically erode rather than build support: the closest analog, the SVP's Selbstbestimmungsinitiative, finished at 33.7% in 2018 after polling 39% in the first SRG wave. Undecided voters and the SVP's reliable base could still lift the final share the single point it needs, so this is close to, but slightly below, a coin flip.
What would change it: The first gfs.bern/SRG poll wave expected around mid-August 2026 (followed by EFK campaign-budget disclosures published 28 August) will show whether the 34% holds, decays, or climbs.
Base rate / baseline: Comparable sovereignty initiatives: Selbstbestimmung 2018 finished at 33.7% yes; June 2026 poll: 34% yes. source
Resolution rule: National yes-share of valid votes in the official BK results.
Resolved 2026-10-13: NO — evidence · National yes-share 29.8% of valid votes (789,082 yes, 1,854,861 no; provisional official result), below the 35.0% threshold. Base rate 47.5% = share of federal popular initiatives with a yes-share of 35% or more, all-time (115 of 242, Swissvotes).

Forecast rationale: Swiss voters have repeatedly approved VAT increases to keep the state pension system solvent: the nearly identical 2022 increase passed with 55% of voters and 15 cantons, and the 13th pension this tax would fund was itself approved with 58% in 2024. Parliament adopted the measure in June 2026 with backing from four parties spanning left and center, while only the SVP and FDP voted against, and the employer associations that dislike the permanent increase have so far announced no campaign against it. The real risk is that the 13th pension will be paid out from December 2026 whether or not this passes, so voters are effectively being asked to approve a permanent tax increase for a benefit they already have — and no polling exists yet to show how they weigh that.
What would change it: The first published poll waves expected around mid-October 2026 (LeeWas/Tamedia and gfs.bern, roughly seven weeks before the vote) will give the first hard read on the yes share and would move this number sharply in either direction.
Base rate / baseline: Mandatory referendums pass 75.1% all-time; ~80% since 2010. VAT-linked pension votes have failed before (2017: 49.95%). source
Resolution rule: Official BK results; double majority (people and cantons) required.

Forecast rationale: Parliament passed this loosening of war-materiel export rules with roughly two-thirds majorities in both chambers, and the Federal Council plus all three largest parties (SVP, FDP, Mitte) back it against a left-led referendum committee. Swiss voters have also twice sided with the arms industry on this exact question, rejecting export restrictions with 68% in 2009 and 57.5% in 2020. The main reason this is not a safe bet: opponents this time only need a simple majority to keep the stricter current rules, their support has been rising across those two votes, and no opinion polls have been published yet.
What would change it: The first gfs.bern and Tamedia/LeeWas polls expected around mid-October 2026 — a starting Yes share below about 55% would pull this number down sharply, as would a Mitte or GLP Stimmfreigabe/No-Parole at the August-October party assemblies.
Base rate / baseline: In optional referendums the law as passed by parliament prevails 58.3% all-time; 66-73% in recent decades. source
Resolution rule: Official BK results; simple majority of valid votes.

Forecast rationale: As of July 2, the campaign's public counter on WeCollect shows 5,746 signatures out of the 100,000 required, with the collection deadline on 25 September 2026 — a gap of roughly 94,000 in under three months. The initiative is run by a small, self-funded citizens' committee from Lucerne with no party or organization behind it, and the committee itself has said collection is running below expectations. Nothing in the campaign's history suggests the machinery needed to close a gap of that size in the time remaining.
What would change it: A sudden large jump in the WeCollect counter or an announcement before 25 September 2026 that a funded organization is taking over the collection drive.
Base rate / baseline: 55-61% of launched initiatives reach the signature quorum (BK register, 1978-2024). Collection deadline: 25 Sep 2026. source
Resolution rule: BK Verfügung in the Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch); no Verfügung by the date resolves NO.
Resolved 2026-10-13: NO — evidence · Resolved early: the Federal Chancellery announced that the initiative was not submitted with the required signatures by the 25 Sep 2026 deadline (BBl 2026 2562), so no Verfügung declaring it zustande gekommen can follow. Base rate 58% = midpoint of the published 55-61% quorum rate.

Forecast rationale: The committee's own website reported about 84,000 signatures at the start of July, with 100,000 valid ones needed by the 8 October 2026 deadline — a pace that, if it simply continues, lands just at the raw threshold but short after the usual shrinkage when communes certify and the Federal Chancellery counts signatures (the Greens' better-resourced solar initiative announced 134,000 but only 106,499 were counted valid). This is a volunteer-run campaign without a party organization behind it, and a regional paper reported in April that it risks failing; if it does clear the bar, the Chancellery's ruling would almost certainly be published well before year-end, as recent initiatives were processed in four to six weeks.
What would change it: The committee's next published signature count or a submission announcement ahead of the 8 October 2026 collection deadline — a counter jump well past 90% by August, or news of a paid final push, would move this number sharply.
Base rate / baseline: 55-61% of launched initiatives reach the signature quorum. Collection deadline: 8 Oct 2026. source
Resolution rule: BK Verfügung in the Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch); no Verfügung by the date resolves NO.
Resolved 2026-10-13: NO — evidence · Resolved early: the Federal Chancellery announced that the initiative was not submitted with the required signatures by the 8 Oct 2026 deadline (BBl 2026 2696), so no Verfügung declaring it zustande gekommen can follow. Base rate 58% = midpoint of the published 55-61% quorum rate.

Forecast rationale: The Council of States' lead committee has publicly scheduled its final committee vote for 3-4 September expressly "so that the business can be treated in the autumn session," and the chamber's Bureau has already decided to handle the whole EU package in that session, with the Council of States going first. As of late June every involved committee is on schedule, including the commission handling the disputed referendum question, which confirmed on 30 June that its proposal will be ready. The main remaining risk is a late slip in committee work or a procedural fight over the referendum modality pushing the opening debate to the December session.
What would change it: The APK-S committee meetings on 13-14 August and 3-4 September, plus publication of the Council of States' session program around 31 August, will show whether 26.023 holds its slot or slips to the winter session.
Base rate / baseline: In the SR committee since 2026-03-24; committee meets 13-14 Aug and 3-4 Sep; session program unpublished at registration. source
Resolution rule: Amtliches Bulletin / Curia Vista chronology of object 26.023.
Resolved 2026-10-13: YES — evidence · The Council of States opened its first plenary deliberation on 26.023 on 28 Sep 2026 and voted 29 to 15 to enter into the matter (Eintreten), against a minority motion not to; the debate continued until 1 Oct (Herbstsession 2026: 14 Sep to 2 Oct). No numeric base rate was published for this question, so it is excluded from the base-rate comparison.

Forecast rationale: The National Council rejected the approval decree on 17 June 2026 (96 to 86), so the deal now depends on the Council of States, where the file has sat in committee since that day. That chamber is friendlier to the agreement, has two sessions left this year (September–October and the winter session ending 18 December), and can attach the farm-compensation package farmers are demanding directly to the approval decree rather than waiting for the government. The open fight over that compensation could still push its vote into 2027, which keeps this only modestly above a coin flip.
What would change it: The Council of States foreign-affairs committee (APK-S) publishing its meeting agenda for 26.033 in late summer 2026 — scheduling it for the 14 Sep–2 Oct session would push this number up sharply, while an announced suspension pending a Federal Council compensation package would push it well down.
Base rate / baseline: Signed agreement; committees of both chambers active as of July 2026. source
Resolution rule: Official vote record / Curia Vista chronology of object 26.033; any first-council Gesamtabstimmung adopting the decree counts.
Resolved 2026-10-13: YES — evidence · Resolved early: the Council of States adopted the approval decree in its overall vote on 14 Sep 2026 (35 to 7, 3 abstentions); the National Council, the formal first council, followed on 16 Sep (118 to 66, 10 abstentions), and both chambers passed it in the final votes of 2 Oct. YES under either reading of 'first chamber'. No numeric base rate was published for this question, so it is excluded from the base-rate comparison.

Forecast rationale: Every group capable of collecting the required 50,000 signatures — the Greens (16 March), the Social Democrats (27 March), and the unions — publicly decided against a referendum before the 100-day collection window even opened on 31 March, and the remaining radical-left campaign itself called a referendum unfeasible in April. No signature collection against the package has been reported anywhere since, and the left's campaign capacity went to two other referendums launched on 30 June. With one week to the 9 July deadline, there are simply no signatures to hand in.
What would change it: Any news before 9 July of a committee announcing a signature handover against the Entlastungspaket at the Bundeskanzlei would move this sharply upward.
Base rate / baseline: Only ~5% of referendum-eligible acts face a successful referendum (2000-2025); filing requires 50,000 signatures in 100 days. source
Resolution rule: BK communication / Bundesblatt; signatures filed with the BK by the deadline resolves YES.
Resolved 2026-07-10: NO — evidence · No referendum against the Entlastungspaket 2027 was filed by the 9 Jul 2026 deadline. The Bundeskanzlei register (entry CHE-4090, Bundesgesetz über das Entlastungspaket 2027 für den Bundeshaushalt, Geschäft 25.063) records the object as 'Erledigt' with no signatures filed (unterschriftenEingereicht empty, zustande gekommen: none).

Forecast rationale: The Federal Council's February 2025 mandate only requires the draft implementation law to be ready by the end of 2026 — actually opening the public consultation is a separate, later step, and the Federal Office of Justice officials running the file said in spring 2026 that the consultation is planned for early 2027, with parliament expected to take it up around 2028. The most recent reporting (June 2026) still describes drafting continuing through year-end, and the closest comparable project — platform regulation — opened its consultation roughly 19 months after its own drafting deadline. A December 2026 opening would require finishing the draft months early and reversing the announced schedule, so it is unlikely.
What would change it: The Federal Council's 2027 objectives, presented during the September 2026 autumn session, should state whether the AI consultation is slated as a 2026 or 2027 opening — and any EJPD/BJ announcement of a December 2026 launch would flip this.
Revised 2026-10-13: 2.0% — The Federal Council's goals for 2027 (Ziele des Bundesrates 2027, item 5.2) now schedule the consultation on Switzerland's possible accession to the Council of Europe AI Convention for the first half of 2027. An opening before 31 Dec 2026 would mean beating the government's own published timetable.
Base rate / baseline: Committed for H2 2026 in the Ziele des Bundesrates 2026; several H1-2026-committed consultations were still unopened as of July 2026. source
Resolution rule: Consultation appears in the Fedlex consultation register (or admin.ch press release announcing the opening).

Forecast rationale: The consultation on the draft platform law only closed on 16 February 2026, and by early July the government had not yet published even the consultation results report that has to come before the bill itself. The closest comparable digital law, the e-ID act, took about 13 months from the end of its consultation to the Federal Council adopting the bill — a pace that would land this one in spring 2027. On top of that, the Federal Council has repeatedly put this file on hold because of the unresolved tariff dispute with the United States, whose tech companies are the main firms the law would regulate, and that dispute was still open at the end of June.
What would change it: Publication of the consultation results report or the Federal Council's answer to the June 2026 interpellation asking when the bill will come (expected around the autumn session starting 14 September) — either one naming a 2026 adoption date would move this number up sharply.
Revised 2026-10-13: 1.0% — The Federal Council's goals for 2027 (item 1.5) schedule adoption of the Botschaft on the communication platforms and search engines act (KomPG) for the second half of 2027. Adoption by 31 Dec 2026 would put the government at least six months ahead of its own published plan.
Base rate / baseline: Consultation closed 2024; adoption repeatedly delayed; a parliamentary interpellation (26.4005) asks where the Botschaft remains. source
Resolution rule: New Geschäft des Bundesrates appears in the parliamentary registry / Botschaft published in the Bundesblatt.

Forecast rationale: The public consultation on this revision runs until 17 September 2026, and the Federal Council must evaluate the responses before it can adopt a message to parliament — leaving barely three and a half months to year-end. Even the fastest comparable recent case, the broadly supported cyber-incident reporting law, took about seven and a half months from consultation close to adoption, and the last full telecom-law revision took about seventeen; this draft, with its supplier-ban powers affecting major operators, is likely to draw more resistance, not less. Adoption by 31 December 2026 would be without precedent, and the time-critical security measures were already placed in a separate ordinance package, removing any pressure to rush.
What would change it: The 17 September 2026 consultation close and the Bundesrat's 2027 objectives published around 8 September 2026 — an official commitment there or in a UVEK release to adopt the Botschaft still in 2026 would move this number up sharply.
Revised 2026-10-13: 0.5% — The Federal Council's goals for 2027 (item 6.5) say it will take note of the consultation results on this FMG revision, and decide how to proceed, only in the second half of 2027. A Botschaft by 31 Dec 2026 would skip that step and contradict the government's own published timetable.
Base rate / baseline: Consultation closes 2026-09-17; the Ziele des Bundesrates 2026 commit adoption by year-end (~3.5 months of slack). source
Resolution rule: Botschaft published in the Bundesblatt / new Geschäft in Curia Vista.

Forecast rationale: Only two of the four earlier summits in this series, Bletchley Park in 2023 and New Delhi in 2026, produced a declaration that listed both the United States and China. Switzerland has not yet announced a declaration, and the Federal Council describes the aim as developing partnerships, initiatives and joint approaches; the United Arab Emirates' state news agency has reported that the UAE, due to host the 2028 summit, will co-chair in Geneva, though no Swiss official source names a co-chair. On the other hand, a White House fact sheet of 25 September 2026 says the two countries have set up a dialogue on the risks and benefits of superintelligence.
What would change it: Whether the next round of the dialogue on superintelligence between the United States and China happens by November 2026 as planned, and whether Switzerland announces a declaration that countries can endorse at the June 2027 summit.
Base rate / baseline: 50.0%: 2 of the 4 earlier summits in the series produced an outcome document listing both the US and China (Bletchley 2023 and New Delhi 2026 yes; Seoul 2024 and Paris 2025 no). Frozen at registration. source
Resolution rule: YES if the Swiss host (the Federal Council, DETEC, OFCOM (BAKOM) or the FDFA, on admin.ch or genevaaisummit.swiss) publishes, on or before 30 Jun 2027, an outcome declaration or statement of the summit as a whole that lists both the United States and China among the countries that signed, endorsed or adopted it. A list of those countries printed as part of the text or its annex counts (as at Bletchley 2023). The texts of individual initiatives, coalitions or partnerships launched at the summit, a text adopted by participants without a list of countries, a chair's summary, a program and a separate list of summit participants do not count. A declaration published jointly by the Swiss host and a co-chair counts; a text published only by a co-chair or another participant does not. NO otherwise, including when no such declaration is published by 30 Jun 2027, when the summit is postponed beyond that date, or when only one of the two is listed by then.

Forecast rationale: The Federal Office of Justice postponed the e-ID on 30 June 2026, to add safeguards against malware and improve the detection of deepfakes, and will announce the exact date once that work is largely complete. It expects the trust infrastructure for other electronic credentials to start in the first half of 2027 independently of the e-ID, and its tender for the e-ID introduction campaign plans for the chosen agency to start work in June 2027. Together these plans make a public launch by the end of June 2027 unlikely.
What would change it: The start of the trust infrastructure, expected in the first half of 2027, when the Federal Council is to put the e-ID law at least partly into force, and whether the Federal Office of Justice names an e-ID launch date at the same time.
Base rate / baseline: No base rate: the launch has no announced date, and no official source gives an on-time rate for federal IT launches. Frozen at registration as none, so this question is excluded from the base-rate comparison. source
Resolution rule: YES if, on or before 30 Jun 2027, the Federal Council, the Federal Office of Justice or fedpol announces that issuance of the e-ID to the public has begun. A launch in stages counts from the first stage in which at least every holder of a valid Swiss passport or identity card can apply; a stage limited to a canton, a test group or an invited group does not count. Pilot, test or sandbox credentials and the law's entry into force without e-ID issuance do not count. Announcements of a future launch do not count by themselves. NO otherwise.

Forecast rationale: The Council of States adopted the motion by 31 votes to 11 on 3 June 2026, and the author's parliamentary group has filed a motion with the same title in the National Council. Procedural rules require the National Council to deal with it by the winter session of 2026, and the committee preparing the vote has it on its agenda for 12 and 13 November 2026. The main risk is the Federal Council's argument, made when it recommended rejection, that youth protection will be part of its planned law on communication platforms and search engines.
What would change it: The recommendation the National Council committee makes at its meeting on 12 and 13 November 2026, and whether the winter session program published on the evening of 13 November schedules the vote.
Base rate / baseline: 67.7%: of the Ständerat members' motions that the Ständerat adopted against the Federal Council's proposal to reject, the Nationalrat adopted 130 of 192 within 289 days of the Ständerat vote, in whole, in part or amended (motions filed 2016–2025 whose window had closed, parliament data). Frozen at registration. source
Resolution rule: YES if the Nationalrat adopts the motion in whole, in part or in an amended version (Annahme, or Annahme mit Änderung) on or before 19 Mar 2027, the last day of the spring session 2027, as recorded in Curia Vista or the Amtliches Bulletin. NO if it rejects the motion (including when it adopts a committee motion of its own instead), if the motion is written off, or if the Nationalrat has not decided by that date. What the Ständerat later does with an amended text does not matter.

Forecast rationale: On 26 August 2026, the Federal Council proposed rejecting two similar motions in the National Council, saying it did not seem sensible to issue new legislative mandates on specific questions in isolation, and it will probably oppose this one too. In its favor, the author belongs to the largest parliamentary group in the Council of States, and because the motion makes several separate demands, the chamber could adopt some of them while rejecting the rest. The chamber normally takes a motion up in the session after it is filed, here the winter session of 2026, but sending it to a committee first could push the decision past 19 March 2027.
What would change it: Whether the winter session program of the Council of States, published on the evening of 13 November 2026, schedules the motion, and what the Federal Council proposes in its answer, normally due by 30 November 2026.
Base rate / baseline: 36.5%: of the Ständerat members' motions filed between Oct 2016 and Apr 2026, the Ständerat adopted 263 of 721, in whole or in part, within 169 days of filing (parliament data). Frozen at registration. source
Resolution rule: YES if the Ständerat adopts the motion or at least one of its points on or before 19 Mar 2027, the last day of the spring session 2027, as recorded in Curia Vista or the Amtliches Bulletin. A decision taken after a committee referral counts if it falls by that date. NO if the Ständerat rejects the motion, if the motion is withdrawn, or if the Ständerat has not decided by that date.

Forecast rationale: In June, the National Council's foreign affairs committee voted 15 to 9 against a constitutional amendment that would have required a vote of the people and the cantons, calling the amendment unnecessary and rejecting the mandatory vote it sought, and it has the package on the agenda of three meetings before the winter session, which ends on 18 December. Pulling the other way, the Council of States voted 23 to 17 on 30 September for a vote of the people and the cantons, preferring it to the optional referendum that the Federal Council and a majority of the Council of States' foreign affairs committee had proposed. Timing is the other open question: a news agency report of 9 October names the winter session only as the expected date for the National Council's debate.
What would change it: The session program published on the evening of 13 November will show whether the National Council takes up the package in the winter session, and the foreign affairs committee's recommendation on the referendum clause at its October and November meetings will show which way the vote leans.
Base rate / baseline: No base rate: no reference class fits a second chamber's first decision on the referendum type of a treaty package. Frozen at registration as none, so this question is excluded from the base-rate comparison. source
Resolution rule: YES if, on or before 18 Dec 2026, the Nationalrat adopts, in its detailed deliberation of draft 1 of 26.023, a referendum clause (currently Art. 3) under which the decree is subject to the optional referendum (Art. 141 BV: a popular vote only if requested, decided by the popular majority alone), whatever the result of its overall vote, as recorded in the Amtliches Bulletin or Curia Vista. NO if it adopts the Ständerat's clause (vote of the people and the cantons) or any other clause that puts the decree itself to a mandatory vote, if it decides not to enter into draft 1, or if it has not decided on the clause by that date. NO otherwise. The Nationalrat's decision on the separate parliamentary initiative 26.425 and later steps between the chambers do not matter.

Forecast rationale: The Council of States did not debate the electricity agreement in its autumn session, and on 1 October the chair of its energy committee said the committee is doing everything it can to present the result in the winter session, with the necessary extra meetings already scheduled. The task is large and contested: the committee took up the agreement and its domestic bill by only 6 votes to 4 with 3 abstentions, a committee minority will ask the chamber not to take it up at all, and the committee calls the domestic bill very complex, with the opening of the electricity market at its core, and has asked the administration for 25 additional reports so far. The chamber's record on the first decree of the same package, 29 to 15 to take it up and 25 to 16 to adopt it, favors adoption if the electricity decree reaches its overall vote by 18 December.
What would change it: The session program published on the evening of 13 November will show whether the Council of States has scheduled the electricity decree, and the energy committee's meeting of 19 and 20 November will show whether it has finished its work in time.
Base rate / baseline: No base rate: no reference class fits whether a first chamber completes a deferred draft in the session its committee targets. Frozen at registration as none, so this question is excluded from the base-rate comparison. source
Resolution rule: YES if the Ständerat adopts draft 2 of 26.023 in an overall vote on or before 18 Dec 2026, as recorded in the Amtliches Bulletin or Curia Vista; if the draft is split, the overall vote on the decree that approves the agreement counts. NO if it rejects the draft, decides not to enter into it, sends it back, or has not held the overall vote by that date.

Forecast rationale: The federal government's expert group says almost half of the second quarter's 1.5% growth came from the volatile chemical and pharmaceutical industry; both that group and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, which publishes the figure, expect some pullback, and the KOF institute at ETH Zurich expects the economy to stagnate temporarily in the third quarter. In the same data series, 27 of the 30 quarters that followed growth of 1.0% or more printed 0.2% or more, but the most recent case, 1.0% in the first quarter of 2025, was followed by a flat quarter and then a 0.4% decline. Other signals point the other way, including the Swiss National Bank's statement that the positive development continued in the third quarter and a purchasing managers' index above the growth threshold for a seventh straight month.
What would change it: The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs' experimental flash estimate on 16 November, since its regular first estimate for the second quarter matched the flash figure.
Base rate / baseline: 80.0%: share of the 40 quarters Q3 2016 to Q2 2026 whose sport-event-adjusted growth, as revised in SECO's series of 3 Sep 2026, printed 0.2% or more (32 of 40; the question resolves on a first estimate, which the series does not keep). Latest quarter: Q2 2026 = +1.5%. Frozen at registration. source
Resolution rule: YES if the headline quarter-on-quarter figure for sport-event-adjusted real GDP, as printed (one decimal), in SECO's quarterly GDP release of 30 Nov 2026 is 0.2% or higher; NO otherwise. If SECO moves that release, its first regular quarterly estimate for Q3 2026 counts. The experimental Flash estimate of 16 Nov 2026 does not count.

Forecast rationale: Immediately after the National Council approved the agreement on 16 September, the Alliance against Rainforest Deforestation ("Allianz gegen Regenwald-Abholzung") announced a referendum, and Public Eye says a broad civil-society alliance is taking it up together with the Greens and the Social Democrats. Two earlier referendums against free trade agreements were filed: 61,719 signatures were submitted against the Indonesia agreement, and Public Eye reports that 85,000 signatures against the Malaysia agreement were handed in on 5 October. Under the question's rule, signatures filed with the Federal Chancellery by 21 January 2027 are enough, even if the referendum later falls short.
What would change it: Any signature count the alliance publishes before the 21 January 2027 deadline would matter most; the Fribourg cantonal parliament's November session on a cantonal referendum matters far less, since eight cantons are needed.
Base rate / baseline: 15.4%: of the 13 approvals of trade, free trade or economic partnership agreements decided Oct 2016 to Oct 2026, 2 drew a filed referendum (Indonesia, Malaysia), per the Federal Chancellery's referendum records. The class includes approvals against which no referendum was ever announced; here one was announced on the day of the National Council's vote. Frozen at registration. source
Resolution rule: YES if, by 21 Jan 2027, signatures for a referendum against the decree are filed with the Federal Chancellery (whether or not the referendum is later declared to have come about), or at least eight cantons have lodged a cantonal referendum (Art. 141 para. 1 BV). Evidence: the Federal Chancellery's referendum records or a Federal Chancellery / Bundesblatt communication. NO otherwise.