{
 "meta": {
  "title": "Swiss Political Forecast Ledger",
  "maintainer": "Nicolas Probst",
  "url": "https://uncertainfutures.org/ledger/",
  "scoring": "Brier score per question; headline metric is the Brier Skill Score against the published base rate. Backtests are labeled BACKTEST and never mixed into the live record. A quarterly review discusses every miss.",
  "wording_policy": "Question wording, resolution rule, and resolution authority are frozen at registration and never edited. Corrections happen by registering a new question, never by rewriting an old one.",
  "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
  "generated_by": "build-page.py"
 },
 "questions": [
  {
   "qid": "L-002",
   "question": "Will SECO's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July 2026, published 6 Aug 2026, be 3.2% or higher?",
   "resolution": "The seasonally adjusted rate in SECO's release of 2026-08-06.",
   "authority": "SECO (seco.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-08-06",
   "lane": "Economy",
   "base_rate": "Baseline: May 2026 = 3.1% sa; June figure publishes 2026-07-06.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.seco.admin.ch/de/arbeitsmarktstatistik-berichte-rechtsgrundlagen",
   "forecast_pct": 30,
   "current_pct": 38,
   "revisions": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 38,
     "rationale": "SECO's June release (published 6 Jul 2026): the seasonally adjusted count rose another +2,416 to 147'087 — barely below May's +2,583 — while the rounded rate held at 3.1%. A third increment of that size lands almost exactly on the 3.15% rounding threshold for a printed 3.2%, so the deceleration scenario in the registered rationale has weakened; reweighting the same scenario math gives roughly 0.38. Supporting signals: SECO's expert group raised its 2026 average unemployment forecast to 3.1% (18 Jun), and the extended 24-month Kurzarbeit maximum takes effect 1 Aug, both citing the difficult environment."
    }
   ],
   "rationale": "Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.1% in May 2026, and printing 3.2% in July would take roughly 2,500-3,500 more seasonally adjusted unemployed over June and July combined — more than the recent pace, which was flattered by a single large jump in May after an almost flat April. SECO's own economists say the rise in unemployment is slowing, forward indicators improved in late June (the KOF barometer moved back above 100 and oil fell back below $80), and last summer both the July and August readings were unchanged. A move to 3.2% looks more likely in the autumn than in the July data.",
   "what_would_change": "SECO's June figures, released 6 July 2026 — a June print of 3.2%, or another May-sized jump in the adjusted count, would push this probability sharply up.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "resolved",
   "outcome": "NO",
   "brier": 0.1444,
   "resolved_on": "2026-08-11",
   "evidence_url": "https://www.seco.admin.ch/dam/de/sd-web/87RRZ57sm6Qi/2026-07_Die_Lage_auf_dem_Arbeitsmarkt_DE.pdf",
   "base_rate_brier": 0.027889,
   "resolution_note": "SECO's July 2026 release (published 6 Aug 2026) prints the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unchanged at 3.1% — below the 3.2% threshold; the seasonally adjusted count rose 959 to 148'002. Base rate 16.7% = frequency of a >=0.1pp rise in the printed sa rate across the 120 monthly transitions to June 2026 (SECO series via data.snb.ch, current vintage, one-decimal rounding). Scored on the standing forecast of 38% (revised 1 Aug from registered 30%)."
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-003",
   "question": "Will the hypothekarischer Referenzzinssatz published by the BWO on 1 Sep 2026 be lowered to 1.00% (from 1.25%)?",
   "resolution": "BWO publication of 2026-09-01.",
   "authority": "BWO (admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-09-01",
   "lane": "Economy",
   "base_rate": "Held at 1.25% on 2026-06-02.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.bwo.admin.ch/de/referenzzinssatz",
   "forecast_pct": 0.4,
   "current_pct": 0.4,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The September figure is computed from mortgage data already collected on 30 June 2026, and the rate only drops to 1.00% if the average interest rate on Switzerland's outstanding mortgages fell below 1.13% on that date. It stood at 1.31% at the end of March and has been declining by just 0.01 percentage points per quarter; the required one-quarter fall would be nearly double the largest ever recorded, and the average has never been below 1.13% since the series began in 2008. With new fixed mortgages now pricing above the stock average, there is no realistic path to the cut.",
   "what_would_change": "A Q2 Comparis Hypobarometer release (expected around July on its quarterly cadence) showing an extreme, unprecedented collapse in Swiss mortgage-stock repricing would be the only pre-publication signal worth acting on before the BWO print on 1 September 2026.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-004",
   "question": "Will SECO's first estimate of Q2 2026 real GDP growth (sport-event-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter), published 3 Sep 2026, be 0.2% or higher?",
   "resolution": "Headline QoQ figure in the SECO Medienmitteilung of 2026-09-03.",
   "authority": "SECO (seco.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-09-03",
   "lane": "Economy",
   "base_rate": "Baseline: Q1 2026 = +0.4% QoQ.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.seco.admin.ch/de/bruttoinlandsprodukt-quartalsschaetzungen",
   "forecast_pct": 81,
   "current_pct": 81,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "Switzerland's economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter, and the government's own economists said in June that the data available so far point to renewed growth in the second quarter. Business surveys were strong throughout the quarter and May exports jumped 13.4%, helped by pharma companies shipping ahead of a US tariff deadline, so a reading of 0.2% or better looks likely. The main risk is the pharmaceutical sector, whose contribution to GDP swings sharply from quarter to quarter and does not always follow its export numbers.",
   "what_would_change": "SECO's experimental Flash GDP estimate for Q2, due Friday 14 August 2026 at 09:00, is the single most direct preview of the 3 September figure (June foreign-trade data in mid/late July is the next-best early signal).",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-005",
   "question": "Will the SNB lower its policy rate at the monetary policy assessment of 24 Sep 2026?",
   "resolution": "SNB press release of 2026-09-24, 09:30.",
   "authority": "SNB (snb.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-09-24",
   "lane": "Economy",
   "base_rate": "Policy rate 0% since June 2025; held at the June 2026 assessment.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.snb.ch/de/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260618",
   "forecast_pct": 3.5,
   "current_pct": 3.5,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "Cutting from today's 0% would mean returning to negative interest rates, a step the Swiss National Bank has taken only once in its history (2014) and has held off from for four straight meetings while calling its current policy \"appropriate.\" Swiss inflation is low but positive and edging up (0.5% in June), the franc has been weakening, and in a mid-June Reuters survey all 35 economists polled expected the rate to stay at 0% through the end of 2026. Against a franc surge the SNB's stated first response is buying foreign currency, not cutting rates, so only an unusually severe shock this summer would change the picture by 24 September.",
   "what_would_change": "The Swiss August inflation figures released in early September are the last major input before the meeting — a drop back toward zero, especially alongside a sharp franc appreciation, would revive the case for negative rates.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-006",
   "question": "Will the Volksinitiative «Wahrung der schweizerischen Neutralität (Neutralitätsinitiative)» (BBl 2026 799) be accepted (majority of valid votes AND majority of cantons) on 27 Sep 2026?",
   "resolution": "Provisional official final results published by the Bundeskanzlei on vote night.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei (bk.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-09-27",
   "lane": "Ballots",
   "base_rate": "Popular initiatives pass 10.7% of the time all-time (26/242); 12.2% since 2000.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://swissvotes.ch/page/dataset",
   "forecast_pct": 1.5,
   "current_pct": 1.5,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The only vote-intention poll so far (Tamedia/LeeWas, June 2026, more than 26,000 respondents) shows just 34% in favor and 54% against, and Swiss popular initiatives typically lose support over the campaign rather than gain it. Among the parties, only the SVP backs the initiative, while the Federal Council and Parliament recommend rejection — the same lineup under which the comparable 2018 self-determination initiative finished at 33.7% with zero cantons. Passing would also require a majority of cantons on top of a majority of voters, and nothing in the current data points that way.",
   "what_would_change": "The first SRG/gfs.bern trend poll, expected in mid-to-late August 2026: a yes-share meaningfully above the June 34% would signal an unusually competitive race and move this number up.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-007",
   "question": "Will the national yes-share of valid votes for the Neutralitätsinitiative be 35.0% or higher on 27 Sep 2026?",
   "resolution": "National yes-share of valid votes in the official BK results.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei (bk.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-09-27",
   "lane": "Ballots",
   "base_rate": "Comparable sovereignty initiatives: Selbstbestimmung 2018 finished at 33.7% yes; June 2026 poll: 34% yes.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://swissvotes.ch/vote/624.00",
   "forecast_pct": 41.0,
   "current_pct": 41.0,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The only poll so far (Tamedia/LeeWas, fieldwork 11-14 June, n=26,205) has yes at 34% with 12% undecided — already below the 35% line — and Swiss initiative campaigns typically erode rather than build support: the closest analog, the SVP's Selbstbestimmungsinitiative, finished at 33.7% in 2018 after polling 39% in the first SRG wave. Undecided voters and the SVP's reliable base could still lift the final share the single point it needs, so this is close to, but slightly below, a coin flip.",
   "what_would_change": "The first gfs.bern/SRG poll wave expected around mid-August 2026 (followed by EFK campaign-budget disclosures published 28 August) will show whether the 34% holds, decays, or climbs.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-009",
   "question": "Will the Bundesbeschluss über die Zusatzfinanzierung der AHV durch eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer (BBl 2026 1757) be accepted by Volk und Ständen on 29 Nov 2026?",
   "resolution": "Official BK results; double majority (people and cantons) required.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei (bk.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-11-29",
   "lane": "Ballots",
   "base_rate": "Mandatory referendums pass 75.1% all-time; ~80% since 2010. VAT-linked pension votes have failed before (2017: 49.95%).",
   "base_rate_source": "https://swissvotes.ch/page/dataset",
   "forecast_pct": 62,
   "current_pct": 62,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "Swiss voters have repeatedly approved VAT increases to keep the state pension system solvent: the nearly identical 2022 increase passed with 55% of voters and 15 cantons, and the 13th pension this tax would fund was itself approved with 58% in 2024. Parliament adopted the measure in June 2026 with backing from four parties spanning left and center, while only the SVP and FDP voted against, and the employer associations that dislike the permanent increase have so far announced no campaign against it. The real risk is that the 13th pension will be paid out from December 2026 whether or not this passes, so voters are effectively being asked to approve a permanent tax increase for a benefit they already have — and no polling exists yet to show how they weigh that.",
   "what_would_change": "The first published poll waves expected around mid-October 2026 (LeeWas/Tamedia and gfs.bern, roughly seven weeks before the vote) will give the first hard read on the yes share and would move this number sharply in either direction.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-012",
   "question": "Will the Änderung vom 19. Dezember 2025 des Kriegsmaterialgesetzes (BBl 2026 22) be accepted (law upheld) in the referendum of 29 Nov 2026?",
   "resolution": "Official BK results; simple majority of valid votes.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei (bk.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-11-29",
   "lane": "Ballots",
   "base_rate": "In optional referendums the law as passed by parliament prevails 58.3% all-time; 66-73% in recent decades.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://swissvotes.ch/page/dataset",
   "forecast_pct": 64,
   "current_pct": 64,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "Parliament passed this loosening of war-materiel export rules with roughly two-thirds majorities in both chambers, and the Federal Council plus all three largest parties (SVP, FDP, Mitte) back it against a left-led referendum committee. Swiss voters have also twice sided with the arms industry on this exact question, rejecting export restrictions with 68% in 2009 and 57.5% in 2020. The main reason this is not a safe bet: opponents this time only need a simple majority to keep the stricter current rules, their support has been rising across those two votes, and no opinion polls have been published yet.",
   "what_would_change": "The first gfs.bern and Tamedia/LeeWas polls expected around mid-October 2026 — a starting Yes share below about 55% would pull this number down sharply, as would a Mitte or GLP Stimmfreigabe/No-Parole at the August-October party assemblies.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-013",
   "question": "Will the Volksinitiative «Für eine volksorientierte Politik (No Lobbying)» be declared zustande gekommen (≥100,000 valid signatures) by BK Verfügung published on or before 15 Dec 2026?",
   "resolution": "BK Verfügung in the Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch); no Verfügung by the date resolves NO.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei via Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-12-15",
   "lane": "Direct democracy",
   "base_rate": "55-61% of launched initiatives reach the signature quorum (BK register, 1978-2024). Collection deadline: 25 Sep 2026.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/vi/vis_2_2_5_1.html",
   "forecast_pct": 0.4,
   "current_pct": 0.4,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "As of July 2, the campaign's public counter on WeCollect shows 5,746 signatures out of the 100,000 required, with the collection deadline on 25 September 2026 — a gap of roughly 94,000 in under three months. The initiative is run by a small, self-funded citizens' committee from Lucerne with no party or organization behind it, and the committee itself has said collection is running below expectations. Nothing in the campaign's history suggests the machinery needed to close a gap of that size in the time remaining.",
   "what_would_change": "A sudden large jump in the WeCollect counter or an announcement before 25 September 2026 that a funded organization is taking over the collection drive.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-015",
   "question": "Will the Volksinitiative «Für bewilligungsfreie Solaranlagen» be declared zustande gekommen by BK Verfügung published on or before 31 Dec 2026?",
   "resolution": "BK Verfügung in the Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch); no Verfügung by the date resolves NO.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei via Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-12-31",
   "lane": "Direct democracy",
   "base_rate": "55-61% of launched initiatives reach the signature quorum. Collection deadline: 8 Oct 2026.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/vi/vis_2_2_5_1.html",
   "forecast_pct": 37,
   "current_pct": 37,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The committee's own website reported about 84,000 signatures at the start of July, with 100,000 valid ones needed by the 8 October 2026 deadline — a pace that, if it simply continues, lands just at the raw threshold but short after the usual shrinkage when communes certify and the Federal Chancellery counts signatures (the Greens' better-resourced solar initiative announced 134,000 but only 106,499 were counted valid). This is a volunteer-run campaign without a party organization behind it, and a regional paper reported in April that it risks failing; if it does clear the bar, the Chancellery's ruling would almost certainly be published well before year-end, as recent initiatives were processed in four to six weeks.",
   "what_would_change": "The committee's next published signature count or a submission announcement ahead of the 8 October 2026 collection deadline — a counter jump well past 90% by August, or news of a paid final push, would move this number sharply.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-017",
   "question": "Will the Ständerat hold its first plenary deliberation (Eintreten) on object 26.023 (EU package / Bilaterale III) during the Herbstsession 2026 (14 Sep - 2 Oct)?",
   "resolution": "Amtliches Bulletin / Curia Vista chronology of object 26.023.",
   "authority": "Parliamentary registry (ws.parlament.ch OData / Amtliches Bulletin)",
   "resolves": "2026-10-02",
   "lane": "Parliament",
   "base_rate": "In the SR committee since 2026-03-24; committee meets 13-14 Aug and 3-4 Sep; session program unpublished at registration.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://ws.parlament.ch/odata.svc/",
   "forecast_pct": 93,
   "current_pct": 93,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The Council of States' lead committee has publicly scheduled its final committee vote for 3-4 September expressly \"so that the business can be treated in the autumn session,\" and the chamber's Bureau has already decided to handle the whole EU package in that session, with the Council of States going first. As of late June every involved committee is on schedule, including the commission handling the disputed referendum question, which confirmed on 30 June that its proposal will be ready. The main remaining risk is a late slip in committee work or a procedural fight over the referendum modality pushing the opening debate to the December session.",
   "what_would_change": "The APK-S committee meetings on 13-14 August and 3-4 September, plus publication of the Council of States' session program around 31 August, will show whether 26.023 holds its slot or slips to the winter session.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-020",
   "question": "Will a first chamber adopt the Genehmigungsbeschluss for the EFTA-Mercosur free trade agreement (26.033) on or before 18 Dec 2026?",
   "resolution": "Official vote record / Curia Vista chronology of object 26.033; any first-council Gesamtabstimmung adopting the decree counts.",
   "authority": "Parliamentary registry (ws.parlament.ch OData / Amtliches Bulletin)",
   "resolves": "2026-12-18",
   "lane": "Parliament",
   "base_rate": "Signed agreement; committees of both chambers active as of July 2026.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://ws.parlament.ch/odata.svc/",
   "forecast_pct": 56,
   "current_pct": 56,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The National Council rejected the approval decree on 17 June 2026 (96 to 86), so the deal now depends on the Council of States, where the file has sat in committee since that day. That chamber is friendlier to the agreement, has two sessions left this year (September–October and the winter session ending 18 December), and can attach the farm-compensation package farmers are demanding directly to the approval decree rather than waiting for the government. The open fight over that compensation could still push its vote into 2027, which keeps this only modestly above a coin flip.",
   "what_would_change": "The Council of States foreign-affairs committee (APK-S) publishing its meeting agenda for 26.033 in late summer 2026 — scheduling it for the 14 Sep–2 Oct session would push this number up sharply, while an announced suspension pending a Federal Council compensation package would push it well down.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-021",
   "question": "Will a referendum against the Entlastungspaket 2027 be filed with the Bundeskanzlei by the deadline of 9 Jul 2026?",
   "resolution": "BK communication / Bundesblatt; signatures filed with the BK by the deadline resolves YES.",
   "authority": "Bundeskanzlei (bk.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-07-09",
   "lane": "Parliament",
   "base_rate": "Only ~5% of referendum-eligible acts face a successful referendum (2000-2025); filing requires 50,000 signatures in 100 days.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.bk.admin.ch/ch/d/pore/rf/ref_2_2_3_1.html",
   "forecast_pct": 1.5,
   "current_pct": 1.5,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "Every group capable of collecting the required 50,000 signatures — the Greens (16 March), the Social Democrats (27 March), and the unions — publicly decided against a referendum before the 100-day collection window even opened on 31 March, and the remaining radical-left campaign itself called a referendum unfeasible in April. No signature collection against the package has been reported anywhere since, and the left's campaign capacity went to two other referendums launched on 30 June. With one week to the 9 July deadline, there are simply no signatures to hand in.",
   "what_would_change": "Any news before 9 July of a committee announcing a signature handover against the Entlastungspaket at the Bundeskanzlei would move this sharply upward.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "resolved",
   "outcome": "NO",
   "brier": 0.000225,
   "resolved_on": "2026-07-10",
   "evidence_url": "https://www.bk.admin.ch/de/haengige-referendumsvorlagen",
   "base_rate_brier": 0.0025,
   "resolution_note": "No referendum against the Entlastungspaket 2027 was filed by the 9 Jul 2026 deadline. The Bundeskanzlei register (entry CHE-4090, Bundesgesetz über das Entlastungspaket 2027 für den Bundeshaushalt, Geschäft 25.063) records the object as 'Erledigt' with no signatures filed (unterschriftenEingereicht empty, zustande gekommen: none)."
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-022",
   "question": "Will the Bundesrat open the consultation (Vernehmlassung) on implementing the Council of Europe AI Convention on or before 31 Dec 2026?",
   "resolution": "Consultation appears in the Fedlex consultation register (or admin.ch press release announcing the opening).",
   "authority": "Fedlex consultation register (fedlex.admin.ch)",
   "resolves": "2026-12-31",
   "lane": "Technology & AI",
   "base_rate": "Committed for H2 2026 in the Ziele des Bundesrates 2026; several H1-2026-committed consultations were still unopened as of July 2026.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.fedlex.admin.ch/de/consultation-procedures/planned",
   "forecast_pct": 6,
   "current_pct": 6,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The Federal Council's February 2025 mandate only requires the draft implementation law to be ready by the end of 2026 — actually opening the public consultation is a separate, later step, and the Federal Office of Justice officials running the file said in spring 2026 that the consultation is planned for early 2027, with parliament expected to take it up around 2028. The most recent reporting (June 2026) still describes drafting continuing through year-end, and the closest comparable project — platform regulation — opened its consultation roughly 19 months after its own drafting deadline. A December 2026 opening would require finishing the draft months early and reversing the announced schedule, so it is unlikely.",
   "what_would_change": "The Federal Council's 2027 objectives, presented during the September 2026 autumn session, should state whether the AI consultation is slated as a 2026 or 2027 opening — and any EJPD/BJ announcement of a December 2026 launch would flip this.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-023",
   "question": "Will the Bundesrat adopt (verabschieden) the Botschaft on communication-platform regulation (Bundesgesetz über Kommunikationsplattformen) on or before 31 Dec 2026?",
   "resolution": "New Geschäft des Bundesrates appears in the parliamentary registry / Botschaft published in the Bundesblatt.",
   "authority": "Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch) / Curia Vista",
   "resolves": "2026-12-31",
   "lane": "Technology & AI",
   "base_rate": "Consultation closed 2024; adoption repeatedly delayed; a parliamentary interpellation (26.4005) asks where the Botschaft remains.",
   "base_rate_source": "https://ws.parlament.ch/odata.svc/",
   "forecast_pct": 9,
   "current_pct": 9,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The consultation on the draft platform law only closed on 16 February 2026, and by early July the government had not yet published even the consultation results report that has to come before the bill itself. The closest comparable digital law, the e-ID act, took about 13 months from the end of its consultation to the Federal Council adopting the bill — a pace that would land this one in spring 2027. On top of that, the Federal Council has repeatedly put this file on hold because of the unresolved tariff dispute with the United States, whose tech companies are the main firms the law would regulate, and that dispute was still open at the end of June.",
   "what_would_change": "Publication of the consultation results report or the Federal Council's answer to the June 2026 interpellation asking when the bill will come (expected around the autumn session starting 14 September) — either one naming a 2026 adoption date would move this number up sharply.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  },
  {
   "qid": "L-024",
   "question": "Will the Bundesrat adopt the Botschaft on the FMG partial revision (security) on or before 31 Dec 2026?",
   "resolution": "Botschaft published in the Bundesblatt / new Geschäft in Curia Vista.",
   "authority": "Bundesblatt (fedlex.admin.ch) / Curia Vista",
   "resolves": "2026-12-31",
   "lane": "Technology & AI",
   "base_rate": "Consultation closes 2026-09-17; the Ziele des Bundesrates 2026 commit adoption by year-end (~3.5 months of slack).",
   "base_rate_source": "https://www.fedlex.admin.ch/de/consultation-procedures/ongoing",
   "forecast_pct": 2,
   "current_pct": 2,
   "revisions": [],
   "rationale": "The public consultation on this revision runs until 17 September 2026, and the Federal Council must evaluate the responses before it can adopt a message to parliament — leaving barely three and a half months to year-end. Even the fastest comparable recent case, the broadly supported cyber-incident reporting law, took about seven and a half months from consultation close to adoption, and the last full telecom-law revision took about seventeen; this draft, with its supplier-ban powers affecting major operators, is likely to draw more resistance, not less. Adoption by 31 December 2026 would be without precedent, and the time-critical security measures were already placed in a separate ordinance package, removing any pressure to rush.",
   "what_would_change": "The 17 September 2026 consultation close and the Bundesrat's 2027 objectives published around 8 September 2026 — an official commitment there or in a UVEK release to adopt the Botschaft still in 2026 would move this number up sharply.",
   "registered_at": "2026-07-02T20:34:20+02:00",
   "status": "open",
   "outcome": null,
   "brier": null
  }
 ]
}